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World Jewish News
Hezbollah may have lost, but it will still rule Lebanon
08.06.2009
The victory of Lebanon's Western-backed 14 March alliance in Sunday's elections essentially signifies the victory of sensible Lebanon - a state keen on ensuring its sovereignty and keeping distance from the long arm of Syria and Iran.
The moderate alliance made some impressive achievements during this election (like winning all seven seats in Zahle region, an Opposition stronghold), but before we begin hailing a new chapter in Middle East politics, we should bear in mind that very little will change in Lebanon.
The White House will not even waste its time with attributing the results to President Barack Obama's foreign policy overtures. The victory of 14 March is far from overwhelming - initial results show that it won 69 seats in parliament, compared to 70 in the previous elections.
Lebanon is likely to remain a deeply divided coutry, overridden by regional powers, election results aside.
For the duration of their next term in power, Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's cabinet and majority leader Saad Hariri's coalition will be dependent on Hezbollah's goodwill. With last summer's violent showdown, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made absolutely clear who is in charge.
Maybe that's why during his victory speech Hariri extended his hand to the defeated opposition, and gave his blessing to "everyone who voted for the rival parties."
The pro-Western camp will seek to stay away from confrontation, and will probably refrain from asking Hezbollah to disarm.
Israel, meanwhile, must continue to strike a delicate balance in its dealings with Lebanon - a country ruled in practice by a terror organization while its government enjoys overarching American support.
Hezbollah will undoubtedly protest alleged electoral fraud and fabrications, and blame the "unfavorable" election system. They may be right about the system, but they did not stop short of bribing voters either.
But it's time Hezbollah draws the necessary conclusions from these elections results. In the 1996 elections, the organization lost 25% of its power in parliament, which was seen by commentators as expressing voters' dismay at its provoking Israel into Operation Accountability in 1993 and Operation Grapes of Wrath in 1996.
Hezbollah's hopes that standing up to Israel will be translated to political gains turned out to be unfounded. "God's victory," the name it gave the Second Lebanon War, didn't make it to the polls.
By Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent
Источник: Haaretz
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